Big Picture: … and so it goes on
Somewhere, in a parallel universe, that epic contest has perhaps still not reached a definitive conclusion. The playing conditions for the 2023 event stipulate that, in the event of a tie this time around, the two teams will contest as many Super Overs as it takes to separate the sides … which will be of scant consolation to New Zealand’s 2019 veterans, at least six of whom are likely to line up in Ahmedabad on Thursday, but at least it will be hard for the fates to be quite so cruel again.
And so, here we are, four years later, with the 50-over World Cup picking up with a contest that, to all intents and purposes, never quite ended. Winner-takes-all it is not… but winner-takes-a-huge-stride-towards-their-endgame, it most certainly is. As England discovered in their error-strewn journey through the group stage in 2019, early losses in this round-robin format can crank up the jeopardy further down the line. Especially if you give a leg-up to one of your likeliest rivals for a top-four finish.
This time out, at least England’s lack of evolution comes with a distinct and entirely justifiable caveat. This is the last dance of their golden generation; the squad of world-beaters that came together after 2015 to tear up the timid script that had caused them to bomb on the world stage for six consecutive campaigns.
None of that means there’s anything inevitable about England’s progress this time out, of course. Even allowing for the manner in which they’ve ignored 50-over cricket since 2019 and doubled down on visualisation to fill the competitive void, there are more questions about their readiness than they might have bargained for at this late stage of the build-up.
And if England think that big-game experience is the be-all-and-end-all, their opponents are scarcely lacking in that department either. New Zealand are arguably even further down the “golden generation” road – they were blazing a trail to their first final way back in 2015, even while England were still working out that “setting a strong base” was too 1990s to function.
Though they’ve fallen at the last in each of their three ICC white-ball finals of this era, New Zealand’s overall World Cup pedigree (eight semi-finals or better in 12 attempts) precludes the need for any caveats about the threat they pose. Anyone who doubts their readiness for another deep run needs only to rewatch that Super Over, and feel their pulse racing all over again.
Form guide
England WWWWL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
New Zealand WWLLL
In the spotlight: Dawid Malan and Trent Boult
At 36, Malan is the second-oldest member of a squad that has already attracted a few “Dad’s Army” jibes, and unlike the senior pro Moeen Ali, he’s the latest of latecomers to England’s inner sanctum. There may be an enduring sense that Malan’s methods don’t wholly chime with the ego-free ethos that Eoin Morgan instilled in the squad post-2015 and which Jos Buttler has since carried on but, if that’s the case, then he’s turned his solipsism into his superpower. At a time when attention to the ODI format has been drifting, no one in the world game has made it more of their mission to master 50-over batting in the past four years, and Malan’s haul of five centuries at 61.52 in 21 innings is world-class by any definition. Quite apart from the confidence he will project at the top of England’s order, the hunger in his game right now is palpable. It might yet prove to be an ingredient that the golden generation would otherwise be lacking.
Trent Boult admitted to feeling a little bit triggered down at Southampton during New Zealand’s ODI series in England last month, when the ground’s giant replay screen chose to fill the dead hours of a rain delay with extended highlights of the 2019 final. And little wonder. With the possible exception of New Zealand’s Super Over fall-guy Martin Guptill, no player will have had to relive more “what ifs” from that crazy day than Boult – from his stepping on the rope to reprieve Ben Stokes in the penultimate over to his marshalling of that final-over mayhem, including of course the infamous ball that Stokes deflected through deep third for six priceless overthrows.
Team news: Stokes in doubt, Williamson not ready
England: (possible) 1 Jonny Bairstow, 2 Dawid Malan, 3 Joe Root, 4 Ben Stokes/Harry Brook, 5 Jos Buttler (capt & wk), 6 Liam Livingstone, 7 Sam Curran, 8 Chris Woakes, 9 Mark Wood, 10 Adil Rashid, 11 Reece Topley.
New Zealand: 1 Will Young, 2 Devon Conway, 3 Daryl Mitchell, 4 Glenn Phillips, 5 Tom Latham (capt & wk), 6 James Neesham, 7 Mitchell Santner, 8 Ish Sodhi, 9 Matt Henry, 10 Lockie Ferguson, 11 Trent Boult
Pitch and conditions
Stats and trivia
- England and New Zealand’s World Cup head-to-head is almost as close as the scoreline in the 2019 final. England have won four outright and lost five of their ten previous meetings, alongside that extraordinary tie.
Quotes
“We’ll make the right call: if he’s not fit to play, he’s not fit to play. If he is, we can make that decision. It’s not the time to take big risks on someone at the start of the tournament. Nearer the end, maybe you do take more of a risk with people’s injuries but it’s going to be a long tournament. We’ll see how the guys pull up at training and then we can make our decisions.”
Jos Buttler warns that Ben Stokes may not be risked in the opening match of an arduous campaign
“The good thing about this group is we stay really level. We’ve done that for a long period of time, so even though it’s a massive occasion tomorrow, you know, for us it’s a bit of a cliché, but it is just another game. And if we can do what we do well, then hopefully we’ll give ourselves a good chance towards the back end of the game.”
Tom Latham, New Zealand’s captain, is not getting carried away by the occasion
Andrew Miller is UK editor of ESPNcricinfo. @miller_cricket